2023 Market Outlook & 2022 Year in Review

Executive Summary

2023 Market outlook

Higher immigration levels and increased borrowing costs are two forces that will impact the housing market in 2023. TRREB is forecasting:
• A total of 70,000 sales. This is below the 2022 result, but we will see marked improvement in the second half of 2023.
• The average selling price will reach $1,140,000 for all home types combined. This is up compared to the average price in the second half of 2022, but down by 4% when compared to 2022 as a whole.

2022 Year in Review

The housing market started off strong in 2022, but GTA home sales trended lower in the spring and summer. In 2022, the GTA housing market had:
• 75,140 home sales.
• 152,873 new listings.
• An average price of $1,189,850 for all home types.

Buying and Selling Intentions

Fall 2022 Ipsos polling revealed increased demand for homeownership in 2023. The results included:
• Overall buying intentions were up slightly compared to the fall poll of 2021, with 28% of respondents indicating that they will likely purchase a home in 2023.
• The number of first-time buyers as a share of likely homebuyers also increased, with the intending first-time buyer share increasing to 46% compared to 39% in the previous poll.
• Listing intentions (those very likely or somewhat likely to list their home) for 2023 were up compared to 2022 for townhomes and similar to 2022 for condominium apartments and semi-detached houses

The New Homes Market

According to Altus Group, new home sales took off in early 2022 but dropped towards the end of the year. The highlights for new homes were:
• Total sales were down 44% when compared to 2021.
• The benchmark price for a new single-family home was $1,742,000 in November 2022.
• The available inventory in the new single-family market was 4.5 months

The Commercial Market

Each sector in the commercial market had varying trends. The highlights were:
• Overall Q3 transaction activity in the GTA rose slightly by 2% when compared to the same period in 2021.
• Availability rates in the GTA office market climbed slightly when compared to 2021.
• Industrial supply tightened as we moved through 2022.

Transportation Infrastructure in the Greater Golden Horseshoe

TRREB partnered with the Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis to unpack where transit and transportation infrastructure are headed by 2051. The takeaways are:
• The GTA population could grow to 16.9 million residents.
• The demand for transportation would be up 122% – greater than the increase in capacity – if work from home rates return to pre-pandemic levels.
• Lower-income households could spend as much on transit and transportation as on food.


More and more drivers are choosing electrical vehicles (EV) in Canada. The findings from new research by the Pembina Institute are:
• Developers and building owners should prepare today for the rapid growth of EVs on the road.
• In Q1–Q3 2022, one in 16 vehicles sold in Canada were EVs.
• By 2030, one out of three vehicles sold in Ontario will be electric.

R-LABS Contribution: The Real Estate Industry’s “Crisi-tunity” Moment

R-LABS co-created three solutions in response to the housing supply crisis. Examples of their work and partnerships are:
• R-Hauz is solving the missing middle through off-site prefabricated housing solutions like laneway homes and mass timber avenue townhomes that conform to city planning frameworks.
• OneClose is solving interim occupancy interest for new condominium owners allowing them to lock into a mortgage at the time of occupancy.
• RIOS is improving the efficiency and flow of new housing supply, beginning with a new condominium assignment fulfillment service. 


Posted by Paul Ambler on
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